Ashes Second Test Betting: Australia right at home
Betfair Sports Betting
With their last defeat at Lord's coming in 1934 Australia will be confident of finally taking a 1-0 lead over a potentially unbalanced England side, says Ed Hawkins
"Australia have lost only five times in 34 matches at Lord's and four of those were a scarcely believable two centuries ago"
If the momentum was with England following their extraordinary rearguard action in avoiding defeat in Cardiff, then there is no doubt that since the players left Sophia Gardens it has been slowly but steadily drifting back towards the Australians.
And by the time the two sides pass through the Grace Gates on Thursday morning for the second Ashes Test, there should be a bounce in the stride of Ricky Ponting and co while England could feel like they are shuffling towards a 1-0 deficit.
The draw, a perennial favourite at a venue which has seen six stalemates in the last seven, heads the market at 2.18 but Australia are shortening all the time at 2.80 while England are 5.40.
Australia's march to London has a sense of inevitability about it. With every notched mile on their journey from the Welsh capital to the English one, they will have felt more confident.
That will have been largely because during the three-hour drive, it will have dawned on them exactly how dominant they were, something which can too easily be forgotten when a draw feels like a defeat.
England took only six wickets in the match as they reverted to the form of the side that, pre West Indies this summer, hadn't a hope of taking 20 wickets and this correspondent made it 11 sessions won for Australia in Cardiff. If it had been a boxing match ...
Do not underestimate, either the lift it will give Australia to be playing at Lord's, a venue where they have a quite incredible record. They have lost only five times in 34 matches and four of those were a scarcely believable two centuries ago. The last was in 1934.
There is no rhyme or reason for Australia effectively making Lord's an outground, save for the slightly uncomfortable one that they just seem to put in a bit of extra effort. If that sounds like emotional claptrap, just reread their record again.
The potential loss of Andrew Flintoff is a boon, too, for Australia. Despite England winning 44% of Tests without the allrounder as opposed to 37% with, his absence to a knee injury will leave them unbalanced (Steve Harmison, who averages 3.8 wickets per game in north London, is the likely replacement) and without the one bowler Australia genuinely fear.
No doubt England's hopes of taking wickets will take a blow if Flintoff is out on a Lord's track which has been a graveyard for their bowlers. During the run of draws, England four times had the upper hand against Sri Lanka, India, New Zealand and South Africa but could not find the nous to bowl them out a second time.
Indeed, so impotent were they in those innings that they averaged a wicket only every 20 overs. Having averaged one every 30 overs in Cardiff, the form is there for a repeat.
Of course Australia must also contend with a wicket which has produced an average first-innings total of 404 in the last ten Tests - Australia and England are 1.68 and 1.98 respectively on the first-innings runs market - but the general consensus is that one, or both, of the admirable Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle have the perfect styles to make use of the slope.
Backing Australia would be the advice but a canny wager could well be lumping on which side bats first to enjoy a lead. In the last 10 Tests, the side getting first go has eight times getting a first dig advantage.
Otherwise punters must be aware of the likelihood of a run feast. England have five times posted 500 or more in the seven times they have batted first and their top six boasts 13 centuries between them.
Cases could be made for top bat honours on averages alone for Andrew Strauss (average 58), Alastair Cook (59), Ravi Bopara (143), Kevin Pietersen (72), Paul Collingwood (41) and Matt Prior (58). However, there are doubts about the form and decision-making of all of those men except Strauss and Collingwood. Strauss (Phil Tufnell's pick) is 5.30 and Collingwood, the Cardiff hero, is a disrespectful 8.00.
For Australia, Ricky Ponting is the 4.60 Australia favourite. He averages only 19 at HQ, a mark he must surely put right. Michael Clarke, who fell nine short of a ton in the 2005 contest, and Phillip Hughes, 183 runs for Middlesex in one game this summer, have ground form.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Open Betting: Woods inspired by Federer's record win
Open Betting: Woods inspired by Federer's record win
It's been a steady road back after the knee operation which kept him out of the second half of last season but Tiger Woods is now ready to add to his 14 majors, says Ralph Ellis.
“I texted Roger to say: ‘Great job, now it’s my turn.’”
What's the saying about form being temporary and class permanent? It was certainly shown to be true by Roger Federer at the weekend and now Tiger Woods is about to get in on the act.
Woods and Federer are close pals and the Swiss tennis ace has been taking advice on changing nappies. Tiger's a bit of an expert on that now because his little boy Charlie is five months old tomorrow, and of course he's already been through the parenthood hoop once before when daughter Sam was born in the summer of 2007.
But if Federer is getting inspiration for being a dad, then Woods is chasing his mate's new total of Major victories. Wimbledon took his total to 15, one ahead of the tally that Tiger has accumulated, and the race will be on to catch up again when he stands on the first tee at Turnberry for The Open in nine days time.
It was a few hours before the final round of the AT&T National when Federer completed his epic final set against Andy Roddick. Woods was on the practice range - where else would he be? - when he heard and immediately sent his mate a text.
"I texted him to say: 'Great job, now it's my turn,'" he's revealed to today's papers. "Roger won at the French Open and I won Memorial, so it was kind of: 'Let's do it on the same day, let's do it again today.' But his wins are a hell of a lot bigger than mine. He won two Slams and I won two tour events. Hopefully it's my turn to get the Majors now."
It's been a steady road back to his best for Tiger since the knee operation that forced him out at the end of last season, and it was clear at Augusta that he still needed time. The fact he's now picked up a couple of tour wins - the latest after a superb closing round 67 at Congressional to win his third title of the season - suggests that he could be getting back to the type of form which has seen him accumulate 14 majors.
Woods hasn't always found things easy playing links golf at The Open. He says he loves the challenge but when the winds whip up, and the rain batters down, it's been known to blow him off course. His big hitting style, blazing long drives then playing superb recovery shots, isn't so well suited. Of his three wins, in 2000 and 2005 at St Andrew's the conditions were relatively kind - and in 2006 at Royal Liverpool he produced a master of course management hitting irons off the tees and only four times in 72 holes failing to find the fairway.
That year, of course, he was inspired by the raw emotion of his father's death to play controlled, winning golf. Will a mixture of little Charlie's arrival, and trying to catch up his mate, have the same effect this time on a course he's never seen before?
Betfair punters certainly think so. Woods is 3.2 favourite to win The Open and the next best bet, Sergio Garcia, is as long as 25.0. After that nobody is at odds shorter than 30.
Five things you might not know about Turnberry
1. Turnberry Castle is reputed to be the birthplace of Robert the Bruce - certainly his mother lived there
2. The site of the ruined castle is now occupied by a lighthouse which was built in 1871 after a two-year delay because of arguments over what sort of oil should be used. Three ships crashed on the rocks during those two years
3. Turnberry is credited with having been the first purpose built luxury golf resort, with a 100 bedroom hotel designed by architect James Miller opened in 1906
4. In World War I the hotel was used by Canadians who were training as pilots and aerial gunners as an officers' mess - in World War II it was a military hospital. The golf courses were concreted over in 1942 and used as an airfield
5. A two night weekend break in the hotel's Ocean View suite in August would set you back around £1,600.
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It's been a steady road back after the knee operation which kept him out of the second half of last season but Tiger Woods is now ready to add to his 14 majors, says Ralph Ellis.
“I texted Roger to say: ‘Great job, now it’s my turn.’”
What's the saying about form being temporary and class permanent? It was certainly shown to be true by Roger Federer at the weekend and now Tiger Woods is about to get in on the act.
Woods and Federer are close pals and the Swiss tennis ace has been taking advice on changing nappies. Tiger's a bit of an expert on that now because his little boy Charlie is five months old tomorrow, and of course he's already been through the parenthood hoop once before when daughter Sam was born in the summer of 2007.
But if Federer is getting inspiration for being a dad, then Woods is chasing his mate's new total of Major victories. Wimbledon took his total to 15, one ahead of the tally that Tiger has accumulated, and the race will be on to catch up again when he stands on the first tee at Turnberry for The Open in nine days time.
It was a few hours before the final round of the AT&T National when Federer completed his epic final set against Andy Roddick. Woods was on the practice range - where else would he be? - when he heard and immediately sent his mate a text.
"I texted him to say: 'Great job, now it's my turn,'" he's revealed to today's papers. "Roger won at the French Open and I won Memorial, so it was kind of: 'Let's do it on the same day, let's do it again today.' But his wins are a hell of a lot bigger than mine. He won two Slams and I won two tour events. Hopefully it's my turn to get the Majors now."
It's been a steady road back to his best for Tiger since the knee operation that forced him out at the end of last season, and it was clear at Augusta that he still needed time. The fact he's now picked up a couple of tour wins - the latest after a superb closing round 67 at Congressional to win his third title of the season - suggests that he could be getting back to the type of form which has seen him accumulate 14 majors.
Woods hasn't always found things easy playing links golf at The Open. He says he loves the challenge but when the winds whip up, and the rain batters down, it's been known to blow him off course. His big hitting style, blazing long drives then playing superb recovery shots, isn't so well suited. Of his three wins, in 2000 and 2005 at St Andrew's the conditions were relatively kind - and in 2006 at Royal Liverpool he produced a master of course management hitting irons off the tees and only four times in 72 holes failing to find the fairway.
That year, of course, he was inspired by the raw emotion of his father's death to play controlled, winning golf. Will a mixture of little Charlie's arrival, and trying to catch up his mate, have the same effect this time on a course he's never seen before?
Betfair punters certainly think so. Woods is 3.2 favourite to win The Open and the next best bet, Sergio Garcia, is as long as 25.0. After that nobody is at odds shorter than 30.
Five things you might not know about Turnberry
1. Turnberry Castle is reputed to be the birthplace of Robert the Bruce - certainly his mother lived there
2. The site of the ruined castle is now occupied by a lighthouse which was built in 1871 after a two-year delay because of arguments over what sort of oil should be used. Three ships crashed on the rocks during those two years
3. Turnberry is credited with having been the first purpose built luxury golf resort, with a 100 bedroom hotel designed by architect James Miller opened in 1906
4. In World War I the hotel was used by Canadians who were training as pilots and aerial gunners as an officers' mess - in World War II it was a military hospital. The golf courses were concreted over in 1942 and used as an airfield
5. A two night weekend break in the hotel's Ocean View suite in August would set you back around £1,600.
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Open Betting: Three reasons to back Tiger Woods
Open Betting: Three reasons to back Tiger Woods
The world number one has banished doubts about his form and fitness in recent weeks and is now in a prime position to make a sustained assault on the Open Championship. Paul Krishnamurty explains why...
"Most encouraging has been Tiger's improved accuracy off the tee in recent weeks. The general rule over the past decade has been that when he drives it straight, he wins."
He's now fully back to his best after injury
Any doubts that Tiger would not fully recover his best form after an eight-month injury lay-off have been firmly laid to rest. Sunday's victory in the AT & T National was his third title in eight strokeplay events since returning, and he hasn't finished outside the top 10 in any of them. Most encouraging has been his improved accuracy off the tee in recent weeks. The general rule over the past decade has been that when Tiger drives it straight, he wins.
He lacks any obvious rivals
Going into the year's first two majors, all the focus was on Tiger's rivalry with Phil Mickelson; a battle won by the latter on both occasions. However, with Mickelson missing the Open and tournament specialists Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els all badly out of form, Woods appears totally dominant. The market perfectly illustrates this year's 'Tiger vs the Rest' narrative, with Woods trading at 3.1 ahead of next best Garcia at 25.0.
Turnberry usually produces great champions
The last three Opens to be played at Turnberry have been won by world-class players at the peak of their powers. Tom Watson won the second of his five Open titles in 1980, and Greg Norman won the first of his two in 1986 during his best ever season. Nick Price was the world's leading player during his victorious year of 1994. The logical extension of that trend is a fourth Open, and 15th major title for Tiger Woods.
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British Open Betting, Golf Betting, Padraig Harrington, Paul Krishnamurty, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, The Open Betting, Tiger Woods, Turnberry Golf Course
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