SPORTSAPRIL 8, 2011
Grand National Now a Matter of Class
By JONATHAN CLEGG
WSJ
AINTREE, England—The Grand National, the world's most famous steeplechase, is an event that thrives on unpredictability.
Only 11 favorites have won round here in more than a century, and none has done so in six years. Five have won at 100-to-1, most recently Mon Mome in 2009. The only sure bet in this long-odds race is that fewer than half the runners will reach the finish: In 1928, only two of the 42 horses completed the race; only four of 40 finished as recently as 2001.
Winning over Aintree's four-and-a-half miles and 40 obstacles requires experience, stamina and guts. But mostly, it's about luck.
Agence France-Presse
A. P. McCoy, right, celebrates as he rides Don't Push It to victory in last year's Grand National steeplechase at Aintree.
Or it used to be. But as the 40 thoroughbreds prepare for the 164th running of this history-steeped epic on Saturday, behind the scenes something rather unexpected is going on: This sport's most unpredictable race is no longer the wide-open sweepstake it's supposed to be.
"The Grand National always throws up interesting stories," says Julian Thick, managing director of Aintree Racecourse. "But they're not always fairy tales anymore."
The Grand National is on a tear these days. Television ratings topped 7.6 million in the U.K. last year, making the National a bigger draw than the FA Cup final and Wimbledon. Prize money for this year's race has risen to £950,000 ($1.5 million) and more than 73,000 fans will pack the racetrack for Saturday's big race, the first sellout crowd in decades.
But the biggest upturn at this race may be the one taking place on the track. For reasons that range from the modernization of this famous old course to a new plan for handicapping the field, the most remarkable jump around Aintree in recent years has been in the quality of horses taking part.
Just a decade ago, the National was still largely made up of horses that would have been better employed in front of a cart. But in the past few years, the calibre of mount has improved to such an extent that Bobbyjo, which streaked to victory by 10 lengths in 1999, wouldn't have made the final field in any of the past 10 runnings.
"It's a very different race to what it was a decade ago," said Russ Wiseman, of London-based online gambling company Sportingbet PLC.
The National's transformation from a race in which few owners were willing to enter a top-class horse into an event that attracts many of chasing's biggest names surely has something to do with the heaps of cash on offer: Prize money at this race has risen by £500,000 in the past decade.
But it's also the result of efforts by Aintree officials and race sponsors to modernize a course that included a stone wall and a stretch of ploughed field for the first Grand National in 1839.
Since the 1989 running, in which two horses died, administrators have softened the course, modfiying some of the most hazardous obstacles to protect the animals. The upshot is a race that, while still a fearsome challenge, is no longer such a perilous one—especially since the notorious Becher's Brook was covered up in 2005. Last year, more than a third of the field made it round.
At the same time, a new formula for handicapping the race has bridged the gap between the highest-rated horses and the lowest. In recognition of the unique demands of this race—the longest, toughest steeplechase in the world—the National now allocates weights for each horse that differ from the official handicaps for regular chases.
Since Phil Smith, the British Horseracing Authority's senior jumps handicapper, began tweaking the weights in 2001, the class of entries has increased dramatically. In 1999, the lowest-rated horse in the race had an official rating of 110; in Saturday's race the lowest-rated horse, Golden Kite, has a rating of 135. In other words, the quality of the field has increased by 25lbs in 11 years.
"They have tried to encourage the high-class horses to run by compressing the handicap a little," said David Pipe, the trainer of the 2008 winner Comply or Die.
All of which means that the National has swiftly come to resemble any other handicap race—one in which the best horses with the highest ratings usually win. Only four of the past 20 winners here have returned odds of greater than 20-1
In previous years, that wasn't the case—a third of the runners went to the starting post with no chance at all because a weight of 11st or more was insurmountable.
When Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb in 2005, it was the first National winner to carry over 11st in 22 years. Since then, three of the past five winners have carried 11st or more.
Which explains why Ruby Walsh is optimistic ahead of his ride on The Midnight Club, the favorite for Saturday's race.
"It's great to have a ride in the Grand National and a fancied one at that," he says. "I think he's got a good shout—and in the Grand National, that's really all you can hope for."
